It seems as though we spend every winter dissecting, observing, researching, and ultimately predicting the outcome of the upcoming MLB season. While some people make more predictions than they have strands of hair on their head –ESPN’s Senior Fantasy Sports Analyst, Matthew Berry – and I take credit for the six percent of them that come true, others are more in depth with their prophecies.
As we sit here today (May 17th), MLB teams have played about 41 games, or 25% of their schedule (four games for NFL teams, or 20 for the NBA), it’s now fair to make the statement; It’s not that early in the MLB season.
Still, there are some divisions that appear to be upside down in the standings (AL Central), players on pace for 60 homers (Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson) and the best record in baseball does not belong to the Red Sox or Phillies, but the Cleveland Indians?
With a good portion of the season under our belts and most preseason predictions looking as pathetic as a bad toupee, we are now starting to hear words like surprises, disappointments, and who will cool down/heat up. Here is my list of the top five storylines in the MLB thus far:
1) Jose Bautista - 54 home runs in 2010 and many people were dubbing him a “fluke” whose power will wear off this season. He has responded in 2011 by becoming one of the most feared hitters in all of baseball. His ridiculous 7.4 AB/HR is by far the best mark by anyone who has at least four dingers. Last year, about 60% of his hits were home runs, and this season his approach at the plate is much more disciplined, as shown by his .370 BA and .516 OBP. I have Bautista number one on this list because of this stat: according to ESPN.com, Bautista’s RC27 (Runs created per 27 innings) is 16.75. Over the last four years, only two players have finished the season with this number over 10. (Chipper Jones – 2008, Albert Pujols – 2008-09,) This means that if a team was composed of nine Jose Bautista’s, they would score 16.75 runs per game. Enough said. Don’t be surprised if he’s pushing 60 HR’s come September.
2) Cleveland Indians - The afformentioned “Tribe” is sitting pretty with the best record in the majors at 25-13 and coming off a historic 19-1 trouncing of another surprise team, the Kansas City Royals. The Indians are in the top 10 in pitching (3.42 ERA) and 3rd in total runs scored (200) and team BA (.270). Pitchers Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin, and Fausto Carmona are having solid seasons, while Asdrubal Cabrera and Travis Hafner are helping to carry the offense. This time last season, Cleveland was 17-21, in 4th place, and mourning over the Cavaliers 4-2 loss in the Eastern Conference Finals of the NBA playoffs. An AL Central crown could be in their future this year, half because of their skill and half because of how bad the division is.
3) Curtis Granderson – Like many Yankees, there were many concerns with Granderson entering his second season in the Bronx. His main challenge was overcoming his inability to hit lefties. I think he has silenced the critics with his .850 SLG% and seven home runs in just 40 AB against left-handers in 2011 (4 homers in 158 AB vs. LHP in 2010). New York has lost six in a row and has many disappointing parts so far in 2011, but Granderson is certainly not on that list.
4) Drew Storen – The 23-year old Indianapolis, IN native has been the most valuable closer in the league thus far. That’s right, even more valuable than “the beard” down in San Francisco and Yanks closer, Mariano Rivera. Storen has pitched 23.2 innings with a 19-5 K:BB rate. His nine saves aren’t overwhelming, but his 0.38 ERA will turn some heards and his 98 MPH sinker keeps hitters on their toes. Who knew the Nationals could have another productive pitcher from the 2009 draft – Storen was drafted 10th overall out of Stanford - not named Stephen Strasburg.
5) Hanley Ramirez - It pains me to have Han-Ram on this list, but his 2/14/.204/.291 stat line has forced me to have him at the top of my list of disappointments. The only stat that is “normal” for Hanley at this point in the year is his eight stolen bases, but he’s been caught stealing five times, so you have to take that with a grain of salt. A career .311 hitter before 2011 has never hit below .292 in a full season. He will have to fix his swing – and fast – if he wants to keep that streak alive. The only thing more shocking than Hanley’s struggles is the fact that the Marilins are 24-16 and in second place in the NL East pretty much without the help of their 27-year old shortstop.
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